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US: Oregon Marijuana Surplus a Cautionary Tale for Other States

Found: Fri Jul 12 22:14:56 2019 PDT
Webpage: http://www.oregonherald.com/oregon/localne... [translate]
Newshawk: http://drugpolicycentral.com/bot/


topical analysis
prison was NOT mentioned
propaganda analysis

Oregon Marijuana Surplus a Cautionary Tale for Other States Oregon Marijuana Surplus a Cautionary Tale for Other States

Saturday

July 13 2019

10:14 PM

Page width:

Oregon Marijuana Surplus a Cautionary Tale for Other States

By: Sophie Quinton - pewtrusts.org

Thursday July 11, 2019 - 6:08 AM

Bud tenders help customers at Serra, a dispensary in Portland, Oregon. This year Oregon enacted legislation intended to address the surplus of marijuana in the state. Richard Vogel/The Associated Press Five years after Oregon legalized recreational marijuana, its lawmakers now are trying to rein in production, fearing the state's big weed surplus will tempt some licensed businesses to sell their products out of state or on the illegal market.

Such diversions could invite a crackdown from the federal government and cast a pall over the legal pot industry. Last year, the U.S. attorney for the District of Oregon put the state on notice when he announced that curbing interstate trafficking was his top cannabis law enforcement priority.

Licensed growers have spent thousands of dollars on compliance and don't want to risk their businesses by selling illegally, said Michael Getlin, founder of a 15,000-square-foot cannabis farm in Oregon City. "The flip side of that is, I get cold calls all the time from people out of state looking to go shopping," he said -- often offering two or three times market price in Oregon.

Oregon's surplus, though legal, is something of a cautionary tale for other states as they try to manage marijuana supply and demand. Enough recreational cannabis sat on dispensary shelves, in warehouses and in processing plants this January to satisfy buyers for more than six years, according to a report from the Oregon Liquor Control Commission, the state agency that regulates recreational marijuana.

Like California, Oregon has a long history of illegal grows. And while some states, such as Colorado and Washington, limit the production licenses people can hold and the number of plants businesses can grow, Oregon has made it easy for people to harvest a lot of weed.

"They underestimated the number of people that would be willing to convert to the legal market or would want to participate in the legal market," said Beau Whitney, vice president and senior economist for New Frontier Data, a company based in Washington, D.C., that studies the cannabis industry.

To address the pot glut, Oregon this year enacted legislation that allows the regulators to stop issuing new production licenses when supply exceeds demand. The state also approved a measure that, with federal approval, would allow growers to sell their cannabis out of state.

Congressional bills that would legalize marijuana sales at the federal level have so far been unsuccessful. But two Democrats who represent Oregon in Congress, Sen. Ron Wyden and Rep. Earl Blumenauer, last month proposed legislation that would allow for interstate commerce between states with legal cannabis programs.

Oregon marijuana growers appear to have planted less cannabis this year and prices have ticked up, a sign that the market is correcting, said Adam Smith, founder and director of the Craft Cannabis Alliance, a nonprofit trade group based in Oregon.

Still, Smith said, "the fix is open markets." His group pushed for the Oregon interstate commerce bill and plans to lobby for similar legislation in California and beyond.

Production Control The Oregon cannabis glut has raised eyebrows among experts who study marijuana markets. "The biggest policy lesson you can take from this is: understand the existing cannabis market," said Adam Orens, co-founder of the Marijuana Policy Group, a consulting outfit based in Denver.

His group helps states create an initial estimate of marijuana demand by looking at federal drug use surveys and conducting new surveys of state residents. Once legal sales are up and running, he said, plant tracking systems can help regulators follow market dynamics.

Many states limited marijuana production from the get-go. Washington state, for instance, issued production licenses only during a 30-day period in 2013 and allowed producers to license no more than three businesses each.

Marijuana prices have been dropping in recent years in Washington. But people in the industry disagree over whether that means there's an oversupply problem and how to address it, said Brian Smith, communications director for the Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board.

"We're in a different boat than Oregon is," he said. The regulatory agency hasn't completed a supply and demand study yet, but it found in a recent report that most marijuana producers in Washington are planting in less than the total amount of space allowed under their licenses.

Colorado's Department of Revenue issues production licenses in five tiers, from up to 1,800 plants to up to 13,800 plants. All cultivation licenses begin at the first tier. To move up a tier, growers must prove that they sold 85% of the crop they grew in the previous six months.

If cultivators can't transfer enough product, officials may knock their license down to a lower tier, according to Shannon Gray, marijuana communications specialist for the Revenue Department.

In 2017, licensed growers in Colorado produced about 13% more marijuana than was sold that year, according to a report prepared for the Revenue Department by the Marijuana Policy Group and the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

The report shows supply and demand are "effectively in equilibrium," Gray said in an email.

Statewide production limits help keep supply and demand aligned, Orens said, as do local cultivation and sale limits and Colorado's initial requirement that each company control production, processing and sales. "It's not one specific thing, it's all these things together," he said.

Whitney at New Frontier Data said the decline in the price of retail marijuana comes not from oversupply but competition among businesses.

"The Emerald Region' Oregon regulators' efforts to create a legal marijuana industry have been complicated by the long history of illegal grows in the area.

The Craft Cannabis Alliance's Smith calls Southern Oregon and Northern California "the emerald region," where long, dry growing seasons and cool nights create a perfect climate for growing marijuana outdoors. Prior to legalization, some illegal pot grown in Oregon was trafficked out of state, he said.

After Oregonians voted to allow marijuana sales in 2014, policymakers focused on bringing illegal businesses into the legal system, which is constrained by state borders.

"When the system was getting set up in Oregon -- it wasn't really launching a brand new market, it was transitioning an underground, unregulated market into an above-ground, regulated one," said TJ Sheehy, a data analyst for the Oregon Liquor Control Commission's marijuana program.

To encourage illegal businesses to transition, Oregon policymakers at first didn't set a cap on licenses. Fees are low -- starting at $1,000 for a 2,500-square-foot outdoor grow or a 625-square-foot indoor grow -- and since 2016, aspiring marijuana magnates haven't needed to live in the state to get a business license.

"If you want a license of a certain size, you can have it," Sheehy said. "So it's up to you to decide what makes market sense."

The Oregon commission has licensed 1,136 recreational growers.

Recreational growers aren't the only suppliers in the state. Only about half the marijuana Oregon adults consume is bought from licensed recreational dispensaries, with the remainder supplied by medical growers, home growers and the illegal market, Sheehy said.

He said there's no evidence that a lot of recreational legal marijuana is going out of state, though some businesses may be breaking the law to juice sales, such as by inflating their pot potency results.

A lot of the excess cannabis will be composted if producers can't find buyers, Sheehy said.

The overproduction of marijuana in Oregon and illegal export of surplus product remains an important concern for the U.S. Attorney's Office, said Kevin Sonoff, its public affairs officer, in an email. Since last May, he added, the office has focused more on this issue -- especially in Southern Oregon -- and marijuana-related investigations, arrests and convictions have increased.

Prices for marijuana flower crashed in late 2017, sending many growers out of business. "At pretty much the drop of a hat, prices dropped by 50%," said Michael Johnson, chief operating officer of Siskiyou Sungrown, an 80,000-square-foot outdoor grow in Southern Oregon. "We ended up extracting a lot of that inventory, rather than selling it as smokable flower."

The emergency legislation that Democratic Gov. Kate Brown signed into law his year allows Oregon regulators to stop issuing producer licenses when supply exceeds demand.

The commission had paused processing of applications in 2018 because their workload exceeded staff capacity, said Mark Pettinger, the recreational marijuana spokesman for the Oregon Liquor Control Commission. The new legislation allowed the agency to extend its moratorium through 2021.

Legislators also laid the groundwork for interstate marijuana trade with a law allowing the governor to sign marijuana delivery agreements with other governors, once given the go-ahead from the federal government.

Oregon state Sen. Floyd Prozanski, a Democrat who sponsored the interstate commerce bill, floated similar legislation two years ago but it didn't pass the Senate. This time around, he said concern about overproduction helped propel his bill to the governor's desk.

Given Oregon's climate and history of marijuana production, pot could be the state's next signature export, Prozanski said. "I see cannabis to Oregon as Kentucky sees bourbon."

People close to the marijuana industry say that Oregon's oversupply problem may have peaked last year. "People went bankrupt," said Don Morse, former chairman of the Oregon Cannabis Business Council, a trade group. "And the market settles itself out."

"My farmer clients tell me that prices are going up, and same with my dispensary clients," said Amy Margolis, a lawyer based in Portland who specializes in the cannabis industry.

Switching to Hemp Now Oregon is experiencing a different cannabis gold rush: Morse said that many former marijuana business people -- himself included -- have gotten out of the saturated pot market and switched to growing hemp, a type of cannabis that is legal nationwide and cannot produce a high.

Two years ago, before Congress in 2018 legalized hemp production and commercial sales, officials at the Oregon Department of Agriculture gave 246 farmers permission to plant some 3,300 acres of hemp. This year, they gave eight times as many farmers permission to plant some 53,000 acres. Many growers aim to harvest hemp for cannabidiol, or CBD, a trendy extract with alleged health benefits.

The agency doesn't track how many former marijuana growers are now growing hemp, according to Sunny Summers, the cannabis policy coordinator at the Department of Agriculture.

Hemp CBD is so new that analysts have yet to agree on its actual market size. But like many farmers, Morse is optimistic. His company next year will seed 1,100 acres of hemp in Oregon and California, after growing less than 10 acres this year.

"People say, "Well you're going to experience an oversupply of hemp.' And maybe, maybe not, because you can ship over state lines," he said. "And you can compete in the national market."

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Photo:

analysis of article text


prohibitionist hits:0 government drug warrior (prohibition_agency) hits:0 propaganda (drugwar_propaganda) hits:15 legalization hits:5 drug_reformer hits:0 reform_referenda hits:0 cannabis hits:85 stimulant hits:0 narcotic hits:0 hallucinogen hits:0
    prohibitionist     prohibition_agency     drugwar_propaganda     legalization     drug_reformer
    reform_referenda     cannabis     stimulant     narcotic     hallucinogen
                        
                        


incarceration/prison mentioned? NO - the issue of prison or incarceration was NOT mentioned in this article .

propaganda analysis


explicit prohibition propaganda (explicit_propaganda) hits:1 hated group (propaganda_theme1) hits:0 madness, violence, illness (propaganda_theme2) hits:0 survival of society (propaganda_theme3) hits:0 gateway, use is abuse (propaganda_theme4) hits:1 children (propaganda_theme5) hits:0 demonize, war, epidemic (propaganda_theme6) hits:0 total prohibition (propaganda_theme7) hits:13 dissent opposed (propaganda_theme8) hits:0
EXP - explicit prohibition propaganda (explicit_propaganda) GRP - hated group (propaganda_theme1) MAD - madness, violence, illness (propaganda_theme2)
SOC - survival of society (propaganda_theme3) USE - gateway, use is abuse (propaganda_theme4) KID - children (propaganda_theme5)
WAR - demonize, war, epidemic (propaganda_theme6) TOT - total prohibition (propaganda_theme7) DIS - dissent opposed (propaganda_theme8)



conceptevidencehitslinks
 drug of abuse implied / mentioned

drug related
[news] [concept]

legalization illegal drugs  
drugwar_propaganda : a drug war propaganda event, campaign release, slogan, or themepropaganda

drugwar propaganda
[news] [concept]

explicit propaganda propaganda theme7 propaganda theme4 Why Are Americans So Easy to Manipulate? (Bruce E Levine, 2012)
Classic Modern Drug Propaganda
Themes in Chemical Prohibition
Drug War Propaganda (kindle edition)
explicit_propaganda : an explicit drug war propaganda event, campaign release, slogan, system, or programexplicit prohibition propaganda

explicit propaganda 70%
[news] [concept]

"spokesman"1SourceWatch: War on Drugs
dare.procon.org
Write What You're Told
Anti-Drug PSAs From the 80s and 90s
Lippmann, Walter; Public Opinion (1921)
Bernays, Edward; Propaganda (1928)
 use is abuse

use is abuse 60%
[news] [concept]

"drug use"1Use is Abuse (propaganda theme 4)
drugwarfacts.org/addictiv.htm
propaganda_theme4 : drug war propaganda theme: all use is abuse, gatewaygateway, use is abuse

propaganda theme4 60%
[news] [concept]

use is abuse Use is Abuse, Gateway (propaganda theme 4)
propaganda_theme7 : drug war propaganda theme: total prohibiton or accesstotal prohibition

propaganda theme7
[news] [concept]

"tempt" "legalized" "legalize" "legalization" "legalized recreational marijuana" "legalize marijuana" "marijuana outdoors. Prior to legalization" legalization8Total Prohibition or Access (propaganda theme 7)
 drug of abuse

illegal drugs
[news] [concept]

cannabis  
 drugs 90%
[news] [concept]
various drugs  
 drug law
[news] [concept]
"cannabis law"1History of United States drug pr...
 oft-mentioned government prohibitionist

govt prohib other 66%
[news] [concept]

"U.S. attorney"2A Drug War Carol, page 18
 legalization
[news] [concept]
"legalize marijuana" "legalization" "legalized" "legalize"5mapinc.org/decrim.htm
 psychoactive chemical

chemicals 75%
[news] [concept]

alcohol erowid.org/chemicals/chemicals.s...
 psychoactive plant

plants
[news] [concept]

cannabis erowid.org/plants/plants.shtml
 intoxicant
[news] [concept]
cannabis  
 depressant intoxicant 75%
[news] [concept]
alcohol  
 hemp
[news] [concept]
"Hemp"9mapinc.org/hemp.htm
drugwarfacts.org/hemp.htm
 alcohol 75%
[news] [concept]
"Liquor"4Stanton Peele Addiction Web Site
drugwarfacts.org/alcohol.htm
Pot Threatens Booze Profits
cannabis : cannabis (marijuana) product or usecannabis
[news] [concept]
"Marijuana" "marijuana-related" "cannabis" "pot" "cannabidiol" "CBD" "weed" hemp cannabis industry66Cannabis: Religious and Spiritual Uses
Cannabis-Driving Studies
MAPInc.org Cannabis Link DB
medicalmarijuanaprocon.org
cannabisculture.com
Schaffer Library: Marijuana
drugwarfacts.org/marijuan.htm
mapinc.org/pot.htm
U.S. Prisons Thriving on Jim Crow Marijuana Arrests (2013)
 cannabis industry 85%
[news] [concept]
"pot industry" "marijuana industry" "cannabis industry" "Cannabis Business" "marijuana business" "marijuana markets" "market dynamics. Many states limited marijuana" "cannabis market"10https://www.newcannabisventures....
google.com/search?q=industry+can...
 various drugs 90%
[news] [concept]
"drug"1 
 school
[news] [concept]
"School" "University"2ssdp.org/
 legalism 50%
[news] [concept]
"illegal market. Such diversions could invite a crackdown from the federal"1biblehub.com/daniel/6-8.htm
bastiat.org/en/the law.html
The Book of Lord Shang
Legalism (Chinese philosophy)
Ham Sandwich Nation: Due Process When Everything is a Crime (2013)
Yes, YOU are a Criminal...You Just Don't Know It Yet (2013)
usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/...
Three Felonies a Day
You're a Criminal in a Mass Surveillance World (2015)
thetruthaboutthelaw.com/there-is...
 aggrandizing government

aggrandizement
[news] [concept]

"officials" "experts"3Statism: the Most Dangerous Religion (2014 video)
What is Statism?
Conservapedia: Statism
Wikipedia: Statolatry
lewrockwell.com/2014/07/thomas-d...
Bought Priesthood
Worship of the U. S. Government (2011)
Bureaucratic Thrust
Tyranny of Experts
The Threat of Authority (2012)
The Media As Enablers of Government Lies
The Statist Mindset (Jacob Hornberger, 2011)
Thinking Critically about Experts and Authority
'Scientific' evidence for FDA-approved drugs isn't so scientific, it turns out (2014)
The Intellectual Gravy Train (2015)
 mainstream (controlled) media

msm
[news] [concept]

mockingbird Mainstream Media
whowhatwhy.org/2014/04/09/media-...
archive.lewrockwell.com/orig14/a...
Michael Levine, Mainstream Media: The Drug War Shills
beforeitsnews.com/alternative/20...
Mainstream Media: The Most Significant Threat To Freedom
msm.rt.com/
sputniknews.com/europe/20160225/...
 Mockingbird / Wurlitzer; US intel-controlled media

mockingbird
[news] [concept]

assoc press Operation Mockingbird - Mighty Wurlitzer
carlbernstein.com/magazine cia a...
US Media Conceals News (2013)
Two of the Largest American Newspapers Opine in Favor of Allowing States to Legalize Marijuana (2012)
reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/u...
https://web.archive.org/web/2013...
Propaganda 101: Operation Mockingbird Continues (2015)
 assoc press
[news] [concept]
"Associated Press"1carlbernstein.com/magazine cia a...
Associated Press (AP) - Mockingbird / Wurlitzer

st:0 fo:0 s:0.01 d:0 c:0.05 db:0.133 a:0.74 m:0.68 t:1.87 (f)


text of article used for CRITICAL ANALYSIS, under FAIR USE provisions of the Copyright Act of 1976, 17 U.S.C. § 107, et al.


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    article tags



     

    assoc_press concept - AP - Associated Press - long linked with "Mighty Wurlitzer" intel ops like, "Operation Mockingbird"
    mockingbird concept - documented US intel controlled media: newspapers, tv, radio - various press associated with known intel ops such as, "Operation Mockingbird", "Mighty Wurlitzer", etc.
    msm concept - mainstream media - corporate, government controlled press: newspaper, tv, radio, websites; press associated with known intel ops such as, "Operation Mockingbird", "Mighty Wurlitzer", Tavistock Institute, etc.
    aggrandizement concept - terms of aggrandizement (of government)
    legalism concept - unreasonable, abusive elevation of laws, government secrecy, rulers
    school concept
    various_drugs concept - general terms for drugs
    cannabis_industry concept - cannabis industry - (emerging) marijuana, cannabis industries; marijuana businesses; stock market marijuana plays; pot venture capital
    cannabis concept - cannabis (marijuana) product or use
    cannabis
    alcohol concept - ethyl alcohol for intoxication
    hemp concept - industrial hemp (for food, fuel, fiber, etc.)
    depressant_intoxicant concept
    intoxicant concept
    plants concept - Plants listed in this section are those which have been used by humans for their mind- or emotion-altering properties.
    chemicals concept - Psychoactive Chemicals are chemicals which have mind- or emotion-altering properties.
    legalization concept - drug decrim. or legalisaton
    govt_prohib_other concept - prohibitionist who gets (or has gotten in the past) a government paycheck or money to bolster prohibition, but mentioned in many non-drug-related articles, too
    drug_law concept
    drugs concept
    illegal_drugs concept - drugs of abuse, so-called
    propaganda_theme7 concept - drug war propaganda theme: total prohibiton or access
    propaganda_theme7
    propaganda_theme4 concept - drug war propaganda theme: all use is abuse, gateway
    propaganda_theme4
    use_is_abuse concept - drug war propaganda theme: all use is abuse
    explicit_propaganda concept - an explicit drug war propaganda event, campaign release, slogan, system, or program
    explicit_propaganda
    drugwar_propaganda concept - a drug war propaganda event, campaign release, slogan, or theme
    drugwar_propaganda
    drug_related concept - related to illegal drugs and prohibition